Now Labour Laws Have to be REFORMED for Exclusive Growth as Cabinet gives nod to Direct Taxes Code Bill!FinMin, Labour Min lock horns on investing EPF money in stocks!

Now Labour Laws Have to be REFORMED for Exclusive Growth as Cabinet gives nod to Direct Taxes Code Bill!FinMin, Labour Min lock horns on investing EPF money in stocks!

The government is planning a radical overhaul of a 63-year-old labour law, which, if adopted, could wipe out perennial delays in resolving disputes between employees and employers that have long hobbled businesses.

Indian Holocaust My Father`s Life and Time - Four Hundred SIXTY Six

Palash Biswas

http://indianholocaustmyfatherslifeandtime.blogspot.com/


Now Labour Laws Have to be REFORMED for Exclusive Growth as Cabinet gives nod to Direct Taxes Code Bill!FinMin, Labour Min lock horns on investing EPF money in stocks!The government is planning a radical overhaul of a 63-year-old labour law, which, if adopted, could wipe out perennial delays in resolving disputes between employees and employers that have long hobbled businesses.

The Cabinet on Thursday approved Direct Taxes Code (DTC) Bill, clearing decks for tabling the legislation in the Monsoon Session of Parliament so that the new Act ushering in reduced tax rates and exemptions may come into effect from next fiscal.

The Cabinet cleared the bill, highly placed sources said. When enacted, DTC will replace the archaic Income Tax Act and simplify the whole direct tax regime in the country.

The code aims at reducing tax rates, but expanding the tax base by minimising exemptions.

The Finance Ministry had earlier come out with a draft on the DTC bill, some of whose provisions drew strong criticism from industry as well as the public.

To address those issues, the ministry brought out the revised draft, dropping earlier proposals of taxing provident funds on withdrawal and levying Minimum Alternate Tax on corporates based on their assets.

"As of now, it is proposed to provide the EEE (Exempt- Exempt-Exempt) method of taxation for Government Provident Fund (GPF), Public Provident Fund (PPF) and Recognised Provident Funds (RPF) ...", the revised DTC released by the Finance Ministry said.

The revised draft also puts pensions administered by the interim regulator PFRDA, including pension of government employees who were recruited since January 2004, under EEE treatment.

The first DTC draft had proposed to tax all savings schemes including provident funds at the time of withdrawal bringing them under the EET (Exempt-Exempt-Tax) mode.

Under the EEE mode, the tax exemption is enjoyed at all the three stages--investment, accumulation and withdrawal.

As regards MAT, it has been clarified that tax would be levied on the book profit, as is the current practice, and not on gross assets has proposed in the draft. The government, Mitra said, had received 1,600 representations on the first draft which was made public in August last year.

The second draft, however, did not give any details on the income tax structure such as the slabs or rates, which were provided in the first draft released in August 2009.

The first draft had suggested 10 per cent tax on income from Rs 1.60-10 lakhs and 20 per cent on income between Rs 10-25 lakhs and 30 per cent beyond that. However, officials later said these slabs were illustrative.

The officials said the tax rates would be made known only in the proposed Act.

The earlier DTC draft had proposed to reduce the corporate tax to 25 per cent from the present 30 per cent. The revised proposal has also made it clear that tax incentives on housing loans will continue. Payment on interest on housing loans up to Rs 1.5 lakh will continue. The earlier draft was silent on housing loans.

FinMin, Labour Min lock horns on investing EPF money in stocks

Whether or not a part of an estimated Rs 5 lakh crore of provident fund should be invested in stock markets has become a bone of contention between the ministries of Labour and Finance.

While the Finance Ministry wants Labour Ministry to work on investing about 15 per cent of the Employees' Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) money in stock markets for better returns without taking the issue to the PF trustees, the latter has decided to do otherwise.

Whereas the EPFO commands a corpus of Rs 3 lakh crore, other provident funds, which follow the Fund's investment pattern, have another Rs 2 lakh crore.

In a letter to Labour Secretary P C Chaturvedi, Finance Secretary Ashok Chawla referred to the changes by EPF schemes earlier without any discussion in the Central Board of Trustees (CBT) and said, "it (Labour Ministry) can take a similar view on the issue of investment pattern."

However, the Labour Ministry has forwarded the letter to EPFO to take a view on the matter.

CBT is an apex decision making body for EPFO and is likely to meet on September 10 to take up the issue.

The Finance Ministry wants the Labour Ministry to follow investment pattern notified by it, which provides for up to 15 per cent of the corpus in stock markets.

However, CBT's advisory body Finance and Investment Committee (FIC) yesterday stuck to its stand against investment of EPFO money into stock markets--either in shares or indices.

In his letter, Chawla sought to remind the Labour Ministry that it used to adopt the investment pattern notified by the Ministry of Finance for many years.

"However, the Ministry of Labour has not adopted the investment pattern notified by the Ministry of Finance in January, 2005 and November, 2008 and investment pattern of the Labour Ministry continues to be the same which was earlier notified in July, 2003," the letter said.

Favouring the stand of no investment in stock markets, EPFO said at the FIC meeting yesterday that while investment in stock markets is subject to market volatility, "there is no risk of capital erosion in the case of EPF investments."

It also countered Finance Ministry's claim that the New Pension System (NPS), which has an option to invest in stock markets, is giving better returns than EPF.

The Finance Secretary said in his letter that while NPS for central government employees could generate a weighted average investment return of 14.82 per cent for the central government employees in 2008-09, EPF is giving only 8.5 per cent returns to its subscribers for many years.

The EPFO has been giving 8.5 per cent returns to its subscribers since 2005-06.

Countering Chawla's views, EPFO said the income earned on EPF investments are actually realised, while the returns declared in NPS are notional and subject to market conditions.

This is so because, said EPFO, the returns generated under NPS are based on net asset value while the returns declared by EPFO are based on actual coupon received on its investments.

Retrenched workers, in particular, are due to benefit from the several sweeping changes the government has proposed to effect in the Industrial Disputes Act, 1947, during the monsoon session of Parliament. Such workers will get direct access to labour tribunals where they can challenge their dismissals within 45 days against the current practice of waiting for years, a senior official of the labour ministry, which is steering the changes, told ET.
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इन परिणामों पर अप-टु-डेट रहें:

• श्रम कानून के लिए ईमेल चेतावनी बनाएं

The new-look law will also attempt to settle the troubles of workers before moving court. Firms hiring at least 20 workers would have to set up an in-house grievance redressal mechanism to settle disputes within 30 days. "For industries such as business process outsourcing that have a high turnover rate in human resources, the internal grievance redressal mechanism would be preferred to approaching the government as it would save a lot of time and money," said Amitava Ghosh, head of the regulatory team at Teamlease Services.

Likewise, labour courts will be given the same powers as civil courts to enforce their rulings effectively. Employers can now choose to ignore a labour court's order unless a labour commissioner moves a high court. "Implementation of labour court verdicts would no longer be an issue. This would also make stakeholders respect the courts as an alternate grievance redressal mechanism," said the official.

Not all are convinced though. G Sanjeeva Reddy, president of INTUC, the Congress party's trade union wing, is one. "Industrial dispute tribunals already follow civil court procedures and the delays are extraordinary," he said. Mr Reddy, who is also a Rajya Sabha MP, said the country should instead establish fast-track criminal courts so that awards and fines can be enforced immediately.

Other skeptics believe the government's plans to reduce labour disputes by creating new avenues for settlement will have the reverse effect. "Having multiple options for resolving disputes wouldn't help as there will be a tendency to push everything to the labour courts," said Deepak Gupta, executive director of tax and regulatory services at PricewaterhouseCoopers. Doubters like Mr Gupta also said the high pendency and vacancy levels in labour courts and tribunals could defeat the government's plans to expedite settlements.

To address the manpower shortage at labour courts, the government is tweaking rules for appointing a presiding officer to allow central labour services officers to man the post.

Under the current setup, aggrieved workers must approach a government-appointed conciliation officer to take cognisance of a dispute with the employer. The officer tries to reconcile the two sides and if that doesn't work, submits a failure report to the state or central government under whose jurisdiction a firm falls. It is for the government then to refer the dispute to a labour court, which typically takes years.

The proposed rules will enable a worker to raise issues in a court just 45 days after applying to the conciliation officer, irrespective of the progress there. Though this will save time, some believe the move may not necessarily achieve the government's objectives. "This will significantly increase the number of labour disputes in courts," said BP Pant, director of All India Organisation of Employers. "Such disputes are often settled in the conciliation process, but giving direct access to courts undermines that mechanism," he said.

Instead, say skeptics, the Centre could have marked out the circumstances under which a worker can approach a conciliation officer, the internal redressal mechanism and courts. Mr Pant also rejected the idea of setting up a grievance redressal mechanism in firms with just 20 workers.

"This will only increase the burden on small enterprises." Incidentally, when the law was last amended in 1982, it was proposed that companies with more than 50 workers set up an internal grievance settlement authority. But the government never implemented this provision. The Industrial Disputes Act amendments were agreed at the annual tripartite Indian Labour Conference between representatives of employees and employers as well as labour ministry officials in December 2005.

Through the new rules, the government also plans to raise the wage limit for supervisors to Rs 10,000 a month from Rs 1,600. The ceiling is important as the law only applies to workmen and not supervisors. This move too failed to enthuse some experts.

In 2002, the Second National Commission on Labour had also suggested that the government define a salary limit as a buffer to laws aimed at workmen. Other labour laws like the Employees' Provident Fund Act and the Employees' State Insurance Act have similar thresholds for coverage, which dispel the ambiguity between workmen and supervisors.

New Confederation of Indian Industry president Hari S Bhartia has said industry isn't seeking labour reforms that ring in a 'hire-and-fire' regime. But making the labour environment and regulations conducive for job creation is high on his to-do list. "India Inc wants to hire more, but doesn't want to get caught up in archaic definitions. With the kind of reforms industry is looking for, this bill falls short of expectations," Mr Gupta said.

Crowd control measures in J-K need to be revisited: PM

Voicing serious concern over the ongoing spate of violent protests in Jammu and Kashmir, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today highlighted the need to "revisit" standard operating procedures and crowd control measures by security forces to deal with public agitations. "Despite the curtailment of militant activities in Jammu and Kashmir, the public order dimension in the state has become a cause of serious concern," he said addressing the three-day Conference of Directors General and Inspectors General of Police here.
"We need to revisit standard operating procedures and crowd control measures to deal with public agitations with non-lethal, yet effective and focused measures. We also cannot have an approach of one size fits all" the Prime Minister stressed.
His comments come against the backdrop security forces in J and K facing flak for the killing of over 60 civilians in police action to quell violent protesters since June this year. Singh asked Home Minister P Chidamabarm to establish a high-powered task force to come out with a set of recommendations on non-lethal crowd control measures in the next two to three months.
He said that instead of single standard sequence for the use of force, other countries have put in place procedures that vary according to the situation. The Prime Minister cited the experience of Rapid Action Force for non-lethal crowd control which has been successful saying it should be examined for being followed by other police forces also.

AITUC threatens Parliament gherao after Sept 7 strike

PTI | 05:08 PM,Aug 26,2010
Shillong, Aug 26 (PTI) The All India Trade Union Congress has threatened to gherao Parliament after the September 7 nation-wide general strike if the government failed to relent on its demands, which included containing of the spiraling prices and enforcement of basic labour laws."Food inflation has never been so high and on top of that employees are not paid enough to buy even the essential commodities," AITUC deputy general secretary H Mahadevan said here.He said that federations and employees unions cutting across party lines as well as those from banks, defence and other industries had extended support to it.Demanding abolition of the contract-basis employment, Mahadevan said, "The Constitution guarantees equal pay for equal work and that should be ensured. All employees should be paid the minimum wage of the industry concerned."In some states foreign investments are coming on the condition that the industry does not allow formation of unions," he added.The trade union has already called a nation-wide strike on September 7 protesting the price rise and demanding measures for employment protection, enforcement of basic labour laws, creation of a national fund for unorganized sector and revival of sick PSUs.

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2. Labour law reforms in India

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4. Is it easy to reform labour laws? ∎ Yes, in countries like China. But India's problem is bureaucracy, not democracy. ∎ Difficult in countries like S.Korea ...

5. www.jil.go.jp/foreign/countryreport/pdf/200311/india_pp_pdf.pdf - Similar

6. Developing infra, labour law reform, key to MSME growth

7. 22 Jun 2010 ... The Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) MSME survey ranks infrastructure development the most important factor, ...

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9. Indian labour law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

10. Indian labour law refers to laws regulating employment in India. There over fifty national laws ..... "Contemporary Issues on Labour Law Reform in India". ...

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16. operation of the labour markets. There have been recommendations by the government to reform labour laws in India by highlighting the need for flexibility ...

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19. Free article about 'India: 'Reform labour laws for FDI'.' at AccessMyLibrary.com. Search information that libraries trust!

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22. 3 Apr 2010 ... India faces stiff test to implement school reform ... "They have nice laws on child rights, including the child labour act, but they have ...

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24. Need to reform labour laws

25. 3 Jun 2009 ... 2.0 / 1 votes. India Social News : A DEMAND for labour laws reforms had been at the core of debate for quite some time now. ...

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27. What's there to reform in labour laws?

28. 21 Apr 2006 ... The core issue in labour law reform, however, is different but not ... Unlike in India, there, male unemployment rate is higher than female. ...

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31. 30 Apr 2007 ... `India needs to focus on labour law reform'. Our Bureau. Bangalore April 29 India had a definite competitive edge over the other Asian ...

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33. To compete india needs to reform labour market: Study - Hindustan ...

34. "A radical reform of the country's labour market ecosystem (including labour demand, labour supply and labour laws) was required for converting individuals ...

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New labour law to solve workplace disputes faster-Policy-Economy ... 21 May 2010 ... The government is planning a radical overhaul of a 63-year-old labour law, which , if adopted, could wipe out perennial delays in resolving ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/5955953.cms-                                                                         67k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

Air India loses labour battle in Nepal-Airlines / Aviation ... 30 Jun 2010 ... India's flag carrier Air India has lost a protracted labour battle ... As per Nepal's labour law, a temporary worker has to be absorbed as a ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/transportation/airlines-/-aviation/Air-India-loses-labour-battle-in-Nepal/articleshow/6110345.cms-                                                                         57k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

'Flexible labour laws will result in more jobs'-Jobs-News By ... 27 Mar 2010 ... RBI's deputy governor has called for labour reforms to capitalise on India's large working age population. http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/jobs/Flexible-labour-laws-will-result-in-more-jobs/articleshow/5729583.cms-                                                                         57k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

India seeks to clear child labour charges in textile sector ... 18 Jun 2010 ... Haunted by charges of use of child labour in the textile sector, India ... for itself through law firm Sidley Austin LLP in the US, India is ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/cons-products/garments-/-textiles/India-seeks-to-clear-child-labour-charges-in-textile-sector/articleshow/6061042.cms-                                                                         57k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

India to add 110 million to global work force: Study-Jobs-News By ... 28 Jul 2010 ... "Unless India reforms its labour laws, the industrial growth that is needed to absorb labour will remain in the realm of potential," warned ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Jobs//articleshow/6227696.cms-                                                                         57k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

India will add 110 mn people to global workforce by 2020: Study ... 28 Jul 2010 ... It also cautioned that to be able to reap dividends from favourable demographics , India will have to overhaul its labour laws that restrict ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/jobs/India-will-add-110-mn-people-to-global-workforce-by-2020-Study/articleshow/6228565.cms-                                                                         55k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

Volvo Bus India unit losing money due to strike-Automobiles-Auto ... 3 Aug 2010 ... India's labour laws are rated by the World Bank as among the most rigid and some analysts say they hurt corporate competitiveness in Asia's ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/news-by-industry/auto/automobiles/Volvo-Bus-India-unit-losing-money-due-to-strike/articleshow/6251322.cms-                                                                         57k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

Jet Airways pilot strike highlights fragile labour relations ... 12 Sep 2009 ... India's labour laws, rated by World Bank as among the most rigid, place strict limits on the number of people that can be hired and how they ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/News/News-By-Industry/Transportation/Airlines-/-Aviation/Jet-Airways-pilot-strike-highlights-fragile-labour-relations/articleshow/4999101.cms-                                                                         70k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

IT companies free of labour laws for 2 years - ITeS - Infotech ... 1 Sep 2009 ... These laws are strict on classifying workers, their working hours and shifts, the wages payable, besides other archaic rules on leave and ... http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/infotech/ites/IT-companies-free-of-labour-laws-for-2-years/articleshow/4957110.cms-                                                                         67k-                                                                         -Cached-                                                                     Similar Pages

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1. Reform movement - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2. One the actions taken was the Reform Bill of 1832, which provided the ... of slave trading throughout the British Empire, and Poor Law reform. ... day) was a central issue for the labor movement during the 19th century. ... Acharya Gour Ganguly for account of micro-level reform movements in rural Eastern India ...

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5. Contemporary Issues on Labour Law Reform in India: An Overview

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10. Laws - Indian Bare Acts - Law in India

11. Laws - Indian Bare Acts, Law in India, Statues, Amendments, Notification, Rules, Bill in ... Laws, Laws India, Law in India, Laws of India, Indian Law, Bare Act India ... Labour Law (Exemption from Furnishing Returns and Maintaining Registers by Certain Establishment) Act, 1988 ... The Delhi Land Reforms Act, 1954 ...

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14. Indian Succession Act · The Delhi Land Reforms Act, 1954 · The Delhi Rent Act, 1995 ... Labor Law. Child Labour (Prohibition and Regulation ) Act, 1986 ... The Securities and Exchange Board of India Act, 1992 (Act No. ...

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16. BBC NEWS | South Asia | Why India needs labour law reform

17. 27 Jun 2005 ... Car factory in India. Reforming labour laws will boost industry and create more jobs .... To add a job guarantee bill is not a step forward, ...

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19. List of various Central Labour Acts - Govt. of India

20. 7 Aug 2009 ... Government of India, Ministry of Labour and Employment .... The Labour Laws (Exemption from Furnishing Returns and Maintaining Register by ...

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23. 25 Mar 2010 ... The Healthcare Reform Bill requires more enrollment and transactions ... and was signed into law on March 30, leading to several opportunities ... magnify the existing labor arbitrage between the US and Indian markets. ...

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28. labour law reform to conditions of informal employment; and second, to identify ways .... The bill creates full joint liability for manufacturers using unregistered ... implementation of the labour laws in India. He argued that the main ...

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30. Article: India: 'Reform labour laws for FDI'. | AccessMyLibrary ...

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33. New labour law to solve workplace disputes faster-Policy-Economy ...

34. 21 May 2010 ... Other labour laws like the Employees' Provident Fund Act and the ... "India Inc wants to hire more, but doesn't want to get caught up in archaic definitions. With the kind of reforms industry is looking for, this bill ...

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Rs 50K cr infra fund to be set up by early next fiscal: Montek

The Planning Commission today said that Rs 50,000-crore Infra Debt Fund for financing infrastructure projects will become operational by beginning of next fiscal.

A panel constituted by the Commission to look into the changes required in the regulatory framework for facilitating the setting of the Infra Debt Fund (IDF) is expected to give its report by next week.

"If everything goes well, the Infra Debt Fund would be reality by the beginning of the next fiscal," Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia told reporters here.

He said, "The committee headed by SBI Chairman O P Bhatt which is looking into the changes required in the regulatory framework for creating IDF would submit its report by next week."

Earlier in June this year, an expert panel headed by HDFC chief Deepak Parekh had recommended setting up of the IDF of Rs 50,000 crore for financing projects in this crucial sector.

In its recommendations submitted to the Plan panel, the committee had asked the government to change rules to allow funding by pension and insurance companies.

It had urged the sectoral regulators -- Reserve Bank, market regulator Sebi, insurance watchdog Irda, and pension fund regulator PFRDA -- to tweak their existing laws to enable market players to use the large amount of untapped insurance and pension funds.

In its report submitted to the Commission, the Parekh committee had also suggested that the proposed infrastructure fund with an initial corpus of Rs 50,000 crore be set up as venture capital fund (VCFs) to be managed and regulated by Sebi.

For this purpose, Sebi should be asked to amend its guidelines for VCFs to enable investment in the debt market. Currently, only a part of VCF is allowed to be invested in debt, the panel had said.

The report suggested that insurance regulator IRDA and interim pension watchdog PFRDA be approached to modify the rules to enable these funds to invest in the infra fund.

Besides, the report recommended that foreign insurance, pension and sovereign funds be asked to invest in the proposed infra fund. For this, RBI will have to be approached to create a special window for these kinds of foreign debt with a tenure of 10 years or more.

Also, the multilateral agencies like the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank would also be asked to invest in the fund.

At present, there is a debt funding gap of over Rs 1.62 lakh crore in infrastructure financing for the current 11th Five Year Plan (2007-12).

Mail Today

'Not enough evidence against Modi on Godhra'

The Justice Nanavati Commission probing the Godhra train carnage has refused to summon Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi citing lack of evidence.
The panel formed by the chief minister to probe the 2002 carnage, refused to entertain a petition filed by an NGO Jan Sangharsh Manch(JSM).
The commission on Wednesday, after hearing the arguments of JSM advocate Mukul Sinha, said there was not enough evidence based on which Modi could be summoned.
However, the commission postponed the hearing till September 7 and told the NGO to come up with evidence if they have anything against Modi.
Justice Nanavati said the decision to not summon the chief minister was based on the facts placed before it so far. He added if new facts are placed before it, and in the overall consideration if the commission finds it fit to summon anyone, it will do so.
The commission had earlier disposed of a similar petition by the JSM demanding a probe against Modi in the post- Godhra riots cases.
The JSM had then moved the Gujarat High Court, which directed the commission to hear NGO's plea again.
When pointed out by the JSM counsel that the state government had earlier informed the Gujarat High Court that the order to not summon Modi wasn't final, the commission clarified it only pertained to allegations against former home minister Gordhan Zadafiya and police officer R. J. Savani.
JSM sources said they will now appeal in the HC as the case is pending before the court.
Reproduced From Mail Today. Copyright 2010. MTNPL. All rights reserved.


25 Aug, 2010, 03.47AM IST, Deepshikha Sikarwar,ET Bureau

Foreigners may get to set up LLPs in sectors open to FDI

NEW DELHI: The government may soon allow foreigners to set up limited liability partnerships in sectors where 100% foreign investment is allowed, taking a decisive step after much flip-flop over funding guidelines for this form of business organisation, favoured globally for its flexibility.

The department of industrial policy and promotion (DIPP), the nodal agency for foreign investment policy, has written to the finance ministry giving the broad contours of the proposed foreign investment framework for LLPs. It has suggested that foreign investment be allowed in LLPs with prior approval.

"This will give foreign investors flexibility to operate in a simpler environment with minimal compliances and yet be tax efficient," said Akash Gupt, executive director of consulting firm PwC.

LLPs share many of its features with normal partnerships, but partners will have reduced personal responsibility for its business debts as the partnership itself is responsible for such liabilities.

A discussion paper is expected to be put up in public domain soon, said a government official privy to the discussions. This would be third in the series of discussion papers released by the DIPP. The earlier ones were on foreign investment in defence production and multi-brand retail.

DIPP had, after initial discussions earlier this year, taken a view against opening up this form of business organisation to foreigners. During those discussions, the Reserve Bank of India had favoured FDI up to 49% in LLPs in select sectors, while the finance ministry was in favour of a more liberal regime, but with prior approval.

As per the policy proposed by the DIPP, foreigners will not be allowed to set up LLPs in sectors such as real estate where conditions such as minimum capitalisation and lock-in period are applicable. It also bars foreigners in sectors where FDI is prohibited or restricted with caps on investment.

Indian companies having foreign investments will not be eligible to make investments in LLPs. Similarly, LLPs having foreign investment will not be allowed to make downstream investments or raise overseas debt, said a senior government official.

LLPs incorporate the features of companies and partnerships. The liability of partners is limited to the extent of their stakes in the entity. It also has various advantages over present corporate structures. Unlike private limited companies where number of shareholders is limited to 50, an LLP can have unlimited number of partners.

Compliances relating to meetings and maintenance of statuary records are not applicable for LLPs. Currently, FDI is not permitted in partnerships firms, but is allowed in companies depending on sectoral cap. FDI is allowed up to 100% in a number of sectors such as manufacturing through the automatic route.

Sole proprietorship firms can get non-resident investment on a non-repatriable basis. Globally, 100% foreign investment is permitted in LLPs though they are not allowed to undertake certain sectoral activities in some countries.

The government had notified the LLP Act on April 1, 2009.

4 Aug, 2010, 04.13AM IST, Anindya Upadhyay,ET Bureau

RBI questions FDI changes in aviation sector

NEW DELHI: The Reserve Bank of India has sought clarification on some specific changes in the new foreign direct investment (FDI) policy and the rationale for the shift before it incorporates them in the foreign exchange rules.

In a letter to the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP), the key government body for framing foreign investment policy, the Reserve Bank of India has questioned the policy changes in certain aviation sectors.

The new FDI policy issued on April 1 has retained the 74% ceiling on non-scheduled air transport services, chartered and cargo airlines, and ground handling services.

However, the new policy allows only 49% FDI under the automatic route as opposed to entire 74% earlier. Any foreign investment in excess of 49% has to now be approved by the Foreign Investments Promotion Board, or FIPB.

The RBI has asked the DIPP to not only confirm the change but also give the rationale for this tightening of the rules before it notifies the changes in the Foreign Exchange Management Act, or FEMA.

Under the automatic route, a foreign investor doesn't need government's approval to make investments in India, whereas prior approval of the FIPB is required for investments falling under government route.

Investments up to 100% for non-resident Indians (NRIs) falling under the automatic route for both the sectors remains unaltered.
26 Aug, 2010, 05.40AM IST, Sugata Ghosh & Deepshikha Sikarwar,ET Bureau

In a first, RBI alerts finance min of proposed staff pay hike

MUMBAI: The autonomy debate between the Reserve Bank of India and the government could turn shriller in the coming days. A recent turn of events indicates that the regulator will need the prior approval of the finance ministry to implement salary revisions for RBI employees.

Under the practice followed till now, the central bank simply reported such decisions well after they were taken. For the first time, there is a deviation. In a recent communication, RBI has informed the ministry the structure of the pay revision even before it has told the staff.

"The central bank is yet to issue the circular on pay revision nor has it entered into any agreement with the employees, but the letter has gone to the ministry... This is very unusual," said an RBI official. Interestingly, RBI has nowhere mentioned in the letter that it is awaiting the ministry clearance. In fact, the tone of the communication is such that the details of wage negotiations have been shared with the government for its 'information' .

According to a banker, it could well be a strategic move by the central bank, given that the RBI Act in no way requires it to seek the government's permission for pay hikes. The government, in turn, has not officially sought details on the matter, but is understood to have sent enough feelers that possibly caused RBI to send a letter.

"No letter has gone out from the government ... but we believe that RBI will have to interact with the department on the issue of wage revision," said a finance ministry official. The RBI spokesperson could not be contacted.

The move, which RBI circles have got a whiff of, has not gone down well in Mint Street, the central bank head office in Mumbai. Many feel that the government's intervention in matters like pay hikes could take the recent autonomy debate to a sordid level. In a recent article , former RBI deputy governor SS Tarapore said, "RBI should seek the government's approval only on such matters where the legislation mandates that there should be government approval." RBI concern over autonomy

In its annual report released on Tuesday, RBI has once again voiced its concern over its autonomy which, it said, "should not be compromised either in fact or in perception" . The central bank said the recent enactment of the Securities and Insurance Laws (amendment and validation) Bill — popularly known as the Ulip bill — had raised concern over RBI's institutional independence and autonomy . The report said during the parliamentary debate on the bill, the government had given an assurance that the scope of the proposed bill will be restricted to jurisdictional disputes on regulation.

The RBI salary revision takes place after the banking industry decides on the pay hikes. A revision is due since November 2007.
22 Aug, 2010, 11.01AM IST, Rukmini Shrinivasan,TNN

Most of India's 'middle class' earns between 1K and 2K

NEW DELHI: Despite its shaky empirical foundations, the myth of the Great Indian Middle Class persists. A new Asian Development Bank report lauds the rise of the Indian middle class and projects it as the engine of global growth. However, according to the definition used in the report itself, the vast majority of this middle class earns between Rs 1,000 and Rs 2,000 per person per month. Only 0.0009% of Indians earn more than Rs 10,000 per month.

The ADB's Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010 report released this week has a special chapter on the Rise of Asia's Middle Classes. Projecting that the Asian middle class will dominate the next two decades (including crossing a billion in India alone by 2030), the report says that Asia's emerging consumers are likely to assume the traditional role of the US and European middle classes as global consumers, and to play a key role in rebalancing the world's economy.

However, the definitions used to arrive at such conclusions scarcely fit with the traditional definition of the middle class, as those who have not inherited wealth, hold regular jobs and enjoy a degree of financial security that allows them to consume and save and support the maintenance of law and order. The ADB report defines the middle class as those earning between $2 and $20 per person per day, measured in international dollars, ie adjusted for purchasing power parity. The ADB does add further nuance by splitting the middle class into three sub-sections

: lower middle class ($2 - $4), middle middle ($4 - $10) and upper middle ($10 - $20).

The vast majority of the Indian middle class 82% of it, or 224 million people - however, fit into the first category. Since $1 PPP is Rs 17.256, this means that the vast majority of the Indian middle class earns between Rs 1035 and Rs 2070.

The ADB report shows that middle-class Indians systematically define themselves as poorer than they actually are in surveys. Even by this fairly stingy definition, in all of developing Asia, only Uzbekistan , Lao, Nepal and Bangladesh have a middle class that is a smaller proportion of the total population than in India . China's middle class is 63% of its population, Sri Lanka's 59% and Pakistan's 40%.

Land Of Disparity

In all of developing Asia, only 4 countries have a middle class smaller in proportion to the population than India's

Poor

1,035 per person per month 74.95% (825 million)

Lower middle class

1,035-Rs 2,070 20.45% (224 million)

Middle middle

2,070-Rs 5,177 4.15% (45 million)

Upper middle class

5,177-Rs 10,354 0.45% (5 million)

Rich

> 10,354 0.0009% (1 million)

Source: TIG, ADB 2010

22 Aug, 2010, 11.06AM IST,PTI

IMF growth estimate of 9.4 pc for 2010 not surprising: Virmani

NEW DELHI: IMF projections that the Indian economy will expand by 9.4 per cent in 2010 should not surprise anyone as the Fund uses different methodology of calculating growth, says a key official with the multi-lateral lending agency.

While most other projections are based on gross domestic product at factor cost, IMF estimates economic growth on the basis of GDP at market price, IMF Executive Director Arvind Virmani said.

Whereas GDP based on market price takes into account taxes while calculating value of goods and services in the economy, the factor cost does not.

"Growth rates in GDP at market price and factor cost adjust themselves in a year or two," explained Virmani, who went to IMF last year after serving as India's Chief Economic Advisor.

"For the last two years, GDP growth rates at market price were lower than at factor cost. So, this year it tends to be higher than factor cost," he added.

Raising of Indian growth projections to 9.4 per cent in 2010 by IMF, from its earlier estimate of 8.8 per cent, surprised many people because the economy is yet to fully recover from the impact of financial crisis and return to high growth path.

Besides, as the Indian economy (based on the conventional factor cost) grew by 8.6 per cent in the first quarter of 2010, the IMF prediction meant that it would have to expand much beyond 9.4 per cent through the rest of the year.

The Finance Ministry expects the economy to grow by 8.5 per cent this fiscal, which did not compare that well with the IMF projections of 9.4 per cent for this calendar year.

At the outset, IMF estimates seemed surprising also because the Fund is believed to be too conservative and has been generally pegging India's economic growth at less than the official predictions.

In fact, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee seemed to be too pleased with even IMF's earlier projections 8.8 per cent growth this calendar year.

"This year, my ministry has predicted a growth rate of 8.5 percent. I notice that the IMF has challenged our prediction. For once, however, I am not going to contest the IMF assessment. The IMF believes that the Indian economy will grow at 8.8 percent," Mukherjee had said at the US-India CEO Forum in Washington.

Based on the conventional method, Indian economy grew by 6.7 per cent during 2008-09, while estimated on the basis of market prices, it expanded by just 5.1 per cent.

The advance estimates of 2009-10 pegged economic growth at 7.2 per cent based on factor cost, but 6.8 per cent based on market prices.

However, actual data revealed that Indian economy grew by 7.4 per cent last fiscal based on factor cost, and 7.7 per cent on market prices.

ONGC examining legal, contractual fallout of Cairn deal

ONGC on Thursday said it is examining legal and contractual implications of the Cairn-Vedanta deal, but refused to say if it will make a counter offer.

"We are examining legal and contractual implications of the Cairn-Vedanta deal on us," ONGC Chairman and Managing Director R S Sharma told reporters here.

ONGC is a 30 per cent partner of Cairn India in the prolific Rajasthan oilfields, which is at the centre of a $9.6 billion takeover deal by London-based Vedanta group.

"In the board meeting today, I appraised the board members of the status ever since the Cairn-Vedanta deal was made public.

"We are tracking the developments closely. There are certain strategic issues for any corporate entity which I cannot share," Sharma said.

London-listed mining group Vedanta Resources has entered into a deal to acquire 60 per cent stake in Cairn India, the owner of India's largest oilfield, for $9.6 billion. It will mark NRI billionaire Anil Aggarwal-owned Vedanta's entry in the oil business, but the deal is contingent on government approval.

When asked whether ONGC will make a counter offer, Sharma said: "I would not like to comment."

Sources in the oil ministry, which till early this week was nudging ONGC to cobble up an alliance with Oil India and gas utility GAIL for a rival bid, say that the ministry is only awaiting clarifications from UK's Cairn Energy Plc on it selling majority stake in Cairn India.

Separately, Corporate Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid told reporters on Wednesday that "if shareholders approve, we have nothing to do... If shareholders have a problem, they can go to the High Court, CLB or us. We (MCA) should not be sitting here and prying on people."
26 Aug, 2010, 05.32AM IST,ET Bureau

Vedanta to get entry pass with guarantee plan

MUMBAI/NEW DELHI: Cairn Energy will seek the government's approval to transfer millions of dollars in bank guarantees to Vedanta Resources, implying that the Anil Agarwal-controlled company will be responsible for meeting the oil exploration obligations it had committed to.

The Edinburgh-based oil & gas explorer will write to petroleum minister Murli Deora seeking permission to transfer management control of its Indian unit to Vedanta. By doing so, it has met an important demand of the government, which has been insisting that it has the right to decide whether or not to approve the proposed sale of up to 60% stake in Cairn India to Vedanta for $9.6 bn ( 45,000 crore).

Last week, the government sought clarifications from Cairn on the bank guarantees it gave as security for timely performance of its exploration obligations when it had bid for hydrocarbon blocks. In its reply, the company is saying these obligations will be the responsibility of Vedanta, said a person familiar with Cairn's plans. Cairn's response is likely to reach the government before the end of this week. The contents of the government's letter and Cairn's response to it were described to ET by persons familiar with them.

On Wednesday, Vedanta's chances of sewing up the deal strengthened as state-run companies that were reported to have formed a consortium to make a rival bid decided against doing so because it did not make economic sense, said an official at one of the companies. "Vedanta's valuation of Cairn India is too high to make a business sense," said a director at Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC). Cairn Energy declined comment.



Petroleum secretary S Sundareshan said the government has "advised Cairn Energy Plc to seek necessary approvals and offer some explanations" .

Formidable obstacles to Cairn deal

"As per production-sharing contracts and other agreements signed by Cairn India, the company has certain responsibilities ." Soon after the Cairn-Vedanta deal was announced on August 16, there was intense speculation that the proposed transaction would have to surmount formidable obstacles. Media reports citing government officials pointed to mining and metals group Vedanta's "inexperience" in the oil & gas business as a major disqualification .
25 Aug, 2010, 02.39PM IST,ET Bureau & Agencies

PSUs not to make counter bid for Cairn India: Report

NEW DELHI: State-run energy firms Oil and Natural Gas Corp, GAIL India and Oil India will not counter Vedanta Resources' bid for a stake in Cairn India, a top official in the Indian Oil Ministry told Reuters on Wednesday.

"There is no chance for a counter bid by Indian firms as the valuation done by Vedanta for Cairn India is already very high," the person said, declining to be identified.

Cairn Energy, on Tuesday said it would seek the central government's support for its attempt to exit India by selling a majority stake in its Indian arm to Vedanta Resources in the wake of hostile signals from the petroleum ministry. The Edinburg-headquartered company, however, stopped short of clearly spelling out whether it needed the approval of the Indian government.

"We will seek the government of India's endorsement and any necessary consent," chief executive Bill Gammell said in a conference call after announcing his company's earnings in London on Tuesday. "We will continue to work closely with the Indian government, with whom we have built an enduring partnership, throughout this process," he added.

The London-listed Vedanta Resources on August 16 had offered to buy up to 60% in Cairn India for $9.6 billion, sparking objections from sections of the government that are seemingly reluctant to part with a profitable oil producing asset to the Anil Agarwal-owned Vedanta.

Although Vedanta has said nothing on the record, people close to the company and its advisors have said they believe that no government approval was needed as the oil blocks in question were awarded to Cairn India, before the New Exploration Licensing Policy was announced. There was no need for government permission for a change in ownership of blocks in the regime previous to the New Exploration Licensing Policy (Nelp), they pointed.

The government has stoutly contested this stance, with some sections suggesting a counter bid by state-owned ONGC, Cairn India's partner in the oil blocks, to derail the transaction between Vedanta and Cairn Energy. These sections in the government say that some oil blocks had been awarded to Cairn India under the Nelp, where the government's nod is certainly needed. An official with KPMG, a consultancy, said that in India the practical reality was that the government needed to "bless" the deal.

US, India, others asked to ratify nuclear test ban treaty

VIENNA: A UN-backed monitoring group on Thursday asked nine countries, inluding India to ratify a worldwide ban on atomic test blasts ahead of the International Day against Nuclear Tests this weekend.

"Now is the time for the nine states whose ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) will bring it into force to show the political will and fully endorse it," said the head of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), Tibor Toth.

The CTBT, which bans nuclear blasts for military or civilian purposes, was drawn up in 1996 and has so far been signed by a total 182 countries and ratified by 153.

But nine key states, namely China, North Korea, Egypt, India, Indonesia Iran, Israel, Pakistan and the United States, still need to ratify it before it can come into force.

Washington signed the treaty in 1996, but has yet to ratify it. US President Barack Obama has said that Washington is committed to doing so. But it seems likely to wait until after the new START or Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty has first been cleared by the US Senate.

Last year, the UN General Assembly declared August 29 as the International Day against Nuclear Tests. The date was chosen because August 29, 1949, was when the then Soviet Union followed the US and detonated its first nuclear device, effectively starting the nuclear arms race.

The site of the first Russian test was at Semipalatinsk in Kazakhstan and a total of 450 bombs were tested there until 1991, when Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev ordered the closure of the site, also symbolically on August 29.

"The declaration of 29 August as the International Day against Nuclear Tests is an acknowledgement of the need to halt nuclear testing once and for all," CTBTO chief Toth said.

"The will to pursue a nuclear-weapon-free world is not in short measure but we need to observe August 29 as a time to act and not to wait," he said.

"The hands of states seeking to develop nuclear weapons and the hands of those that already have them will be tied without their ability to test," the CTBTO chief argued.
COLUMN

Sheltered existence

C.P. CHANDRASEKHAR

The U.S. visa fee hike has the Indian IT industry crying foul, but are there adequate reasons to justify the privileges it has been granted over a long period?

NAMAS BHOJANI/BLOMBERG
THE INFOSYS HEADQUARTERS in Bangalore. The tax concessions the IT industry gets are a bonanza that it lobbies for even today.
INDIA'S Information Technology industry does protest too much. Its latest peeve is that the United States has decided to hike steeply, from $2,300 to about $4,300, the cost of a H1B visa, which skilled workers from abroad require for temporary entry into the U.S. The new Border Security Bill passed by the U.S. Senate and signed into law by the President, which incorporates the relevant provisions, is in its view protectionist and discriminatory. It is seen as reflecting the political misuse of security concerns to appease local workers in the run-up to the congressional elections in November by penalising foreign companies using legitimate means to deliver IT or IT-enabled services.
The industry is also peeved because Charles Schumer, one of the Senators who piloted the Bill through Congress, referred to Indian IT outsourcing companies as "chop shops" – derogatory slang for sheds in which stolen cars are stripped of their parts for subsequent sale. The Senator later clarified that what he meant was that they were "body shops" and apologised for his error. But, with the debate referring to the fact that the largest users of the H1B visa are IT "giants" such as Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and Mahindra Satyam, the "body shop" label is also an indictment of an industry that sees itself as a technology leader and a symbol of India's post-reform success. It suggests that the Senator has not retracted his view that foreign, especially Indian, IT companies "outsource good, high-paying American technology jobs to lower-wage, temporary immigrant workers from other countries".
The Indian government has come out in defence of its post-reform poster child. Union Commerce and Industry Minister Anand Sharma has reportedly written to the U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk protesting against the new legislation, describing it as "inexplicable" and stating that it would have "an adverse impact on the competitiveness and commercial interests of Indian companies sending professionals to undertake projects locally for American customers in the U.S.". An estimate, of uncertain reliability, doing the rounds is that the U.S. move would increase visa costs for Indian companies by as much as $200 million.
To clarify, while the Bill will have an impact on the Indian IT industry, it is not directed solely at it. Its stated concern is to strengthen security along the U.S.' border with Mexico by hiring another 1,000 border patrol agents and 500 immigration and customs officials, besides deploying more drones to monitor the border. This drive against illegal Mexican immigrants is estimated to cost around $600 million, and the Bill seeks to finance this cost by hiking visa fees paid by companies employing more than 50 people, in which more than half the work force consists of temporary migrants holding H1B or L1 visas.
It is obvious the Bill is political in nature, in that it seeks to appease two constituencies in the run-up to the elections in November. One is a section of the local population in States such as Arizona, which feels that illegal immigration across the southwest border has gone out of control. The other is American workers who, having just come out of a recession, are faced with inadequate employment recovery and see foreign workers as outcompeting them by underselling themselves. The Bill is also protectionist in intent since foreign companies would be employing a high share of temporary skilled workers brought from abroad and, therefore, would be more affected by this particular levy.
Interestingly, the Bill was passed by unanimous consent and signed into law very quickly, pointing to the political consensus on the issue. What is surprising is that the Indian industry expected the U.S. government, Democrat or Republican, to act differently. In fact, President Barack Obama is possibly more intent than many Republicans on bringing jobs he sees as diverted abroad or to foreigners back to Americans.
PAMPERED
Part of the reason the industry refuses to recognise that it is prone to actions of this kind is possibly the fact that it has been pampered too much at home. More than 10 years after it was first granted special tax benefits, the industry, which sees itself as being in the forefront of an emerging knowledge economy, as having pioneered a global delivery model, and which can perhaps boast that it has delivered the largest number of first generation millionaires in the country, fights hard to keep those concessions. In doing so, it is not above board. It constantly demands that the government "keep off", arguing that its rise has been driven purely by private initiative, when actually implicit subsidies (tax concessions), liberal trading rules and infrastructural support from government agencies have been crucial in delivering large profits and driving market valuations.
Nothing is more revealing than the fact that an Annexe on revenues foregone in the papers relating to Union Budget 2010-11 estimates that in 2008-09 the "effective tax rate" on 8,166 firms identified as "Software Development Agencies" was 11.8 per cent and that on 6,493 firms identified as "IT Enabled Services, BPO [Business Process Outsourcing] Service Providers" was 13.1 per cent. The effective tax rate is the ratio of total taxes paid (including surcharge and education cess but excluding Dividend Distribution Tax and Fringe Benefit Tax) to the total profits before taxes (PBT). This compares with the statutory tax rate of 33.99 per cent, which would have applied if no concessions were provided. Since input and capital costs are low in this service industry, and cheap skilled labour is its strength, profit does constitute a high share of per worker income. This concession is, therefore, a bonanza, which even today the industry zealously lobbies for.
CAROLYN KASTER/AP
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA sings the Southwest Border Security Bill in the Oval Office of the White House on August 13. At left is Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano. The Bill is political in nature, in that it seeks to appease two constituencies in the run-up to elections in November.
The industry is also privileged relative to the IT hardware sector. While the early thrust of the information technology policy was to build a strong hardware industry, at least in the area of small computers where the domestic market was bound to be large in course of time, since the 1990s regulations on access to imports of hardware have been liberalised completely and duties have been slashed to extremely low levels to support software and services export units. In the event, the domestic hardware market has been swamped by foreign players importing complete knocked down machines. Domestic demand is largely serviced by foreign brands, with a few stray domestic players accounting for a declining market share, while the domestic "industry", including players who started in hardware such as Wipro, is focussed on the services export market.
Given these special privileges granted over a prolonged period, one question that has constantly been posed is whether there are adequate reasons to justify them. One ground on which they can be justified is, of course, the fact that the industry is an important foreign exchange earner. With manufacturing failing to live up to the government's claims on what liberalisation will do to India's industrial competitiveness and export success, this is indeed a contribution that cannot be belittled. But that definitely does not warrant a set of tax concessions that make the effective tax rate less than half of the statutory rate and have remained in place for as long as they have. Further, if a visa fee hike can be labelled a protectionist measure that violates trade rules, a tax concession of this kind can be attacked as amounting to an export subsidy that does the same.
The other ground on which prolonged and generous government support can be justified is that the industry is a technology leader and furthers India's push into high-technology exports. This is an area where evidence is thin and unanimity is lacking. The industry argues that even though it is a services exporter, it has over the years moved up the value chain and into higher-margin, high-technology areas, rather than surviving on the legacy of cheap, skilled labour that the Nehruvian import-substituting strategy has left behind.
However, while all of the industry cannot be dismissed as a high-tech sweat shop exporting cheap skills through actual (H1B visa-based) or digital migration, there are a number of features of the industry that are disconcerting, given its lifespan and the support it has garnered from the government. To start with, while the technology issue remains unresolved and the claims of high- or low-technology dominance remain unproven, it is true that there are very few software product markets where the Indian industry has found a foothold and even fewer proprietary products in which it commands a significant market share. India is a service provider and matters in products only as a supplier of hired engineering support. Second, the industry has, in recent times, been characterised by a much faster growth of the BPO segment, which on no account can be considered a high-technology area.
Third, the U.S. still accounts for around 60 per cent of the industry's exports and the United Kingdom for around 18 per cent, making the industry extremely vulnerable to developments in specific markets. And finally, as is evident from the current controversy over the visa fee hike, the industry is still significantly dependent on onsite delivery of services using cheap Indian staff rather than more expensive local workers, making it susceptible to changes of the recent kind in rules governing the movement of temporary workers.
Put these together and the weaknesses of an industry that has received privileged treatment for more than a decade seem to be one too many. Rather than using its lobbying strength to conceal these weaknesses so as to continue to be favoured, the industry could look inwards and address some of these problems. It, obviously, still has the clout to influence domestic government policy. But to believe that it can put pressure on the government of a foreign country, which is its main market, to ignore its own domestic compulsions is to be overcome by hubris.
Maybe the problem is too much protection and pampering at home. Depending less on government support at home could possibly encourage the industry to adopt strategies to meet the rising competitive challenge abroad without having to pay workers less than the going wage.
http://www.frontline.in/stories/20100910271804900.htm
ndia will beat China says Morgan Stanley
August 23, 2010 03:27 PM|
Moneylife Digital Team
By 2013-15, India will outpace China's growth, predicts Morgan Stanley, basing its arguments on the same old demographic facts.
A Morgan Stanley (MS) report dated 13th August makes a bold statement: By 2013-15, India will start outpacing China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Author Chetan Ahya (India & South East Asia economist at Morgan Stanley) is undoubtedly on the road meeting institutional clients and talking about the bullish stance of Morgan Stanley. Mr Ahya has been conservative about India's prospects since 2004, highlighting the country's fiscal deficit and current account deficit. So, it is interesting to see what arguments Morgan Stanley comes up with. Here is a gist of what the report says. This is the third in the series of reports titled "India and China: New Tigers of Asia", the first of which came out in 2004.

The key prediction that the report makes is that India's growth will accelerate to a sustainable 9%-10% by 2013-15, after an average of 7.3% over the past 10 years. So, over the next 10 years, MS expects India's growth to outpace China's. Its chief economist for China, Qing Wang, believes that China's growth will move towards a more sustainable rate of 8% by 2015, following the remarkable 10% average over the past 30 years. If these predictions come true, implications for asset allocation are huge.

MS says that India's current growth happened because of three key reasons — the ratio of its dependent population size to the working-age population size declined to 57% in 2009 from almost 69% in 1995. This was because the proportion of both elderly people and children to the working age population decreased. This led to higher savings and consequently investment. The second reason, MS believes, was reform, and the third, globalisation - "India's savings to GDP has risen to 33%-36% from 24%-25%. Similarly, investment to GDP has risen to 35%-38% from 24%-25% and GDP growth has accelerated to a trailing five-year average of 8.5% in 2009 from 5.9% in 2000."

China, says the report, has reached an inflection point and the size of its dependent population will actually start rising from 2015. While India will see a further rise in investments to GDP, particularly in infrastructure, China will see a gradual rise in consumption to GDP — as it tries to reduce its dependence on exports.

The report says real GDP growth in China has averaged 10% annually over the past 30 years, compared with 6.2% in India. During this period, China's GDP grew 16 times to $5 trillion whereas India's rose seven times to $1.2 trillion.  China's exports (including services) surged 65 times over this period to $1,330 billion while India's exports increased 22 times to $250 billion. The reason China outpaced India was faster structural reforms and faster participation in globalisation.

Going by the MS report's assumptions, India will make great strides in education over the next decade or so. The report points out United Nations (UN) data, which shows that by 2020 India, will contribute an additional 136 million people to the global labor pool versus 23 million from China and 11 million from the US while Japan and Europe's working populations are estimated to decline by 8 million and 21 million. However, since demographics alone is not enough, this workforce will have to be educated and skilled — leading to possibly great opportunities in education.

MS expects the pace of reforms to pick up over the next 12-24 months in seven ways — further measures to reduce subsidy burden, the goods and services tax (GST), direct tax reforms, meaningful divestment, cutting fiscal deficit, accelerating infrastructure spending — particularly for roads and power, and foreign direct investment (FDI) in retail marketing and distribution.

For these predictions to come true three things need to happen — the government needs to ensure that it delivers on execution of infrastructure development; for a structural rise in domestic savings and investments, reduction of the government's revenue deficit would be critical; and labour law reforms would need to be prioritized.

The report is strangely not very articulate on agricultural reforms and the need to empower the farmer as a consumer. According to statistics available in the report, China's agricultural growth in the 1980s was at a peak of 5% plus, which has now settled at 4%. However, India's growth, which also peaked in the 80's at 4.6%, has actually come off to 2.7% in the 2000s. Incidentally, agriculture still has a 20% share in India's GDP against 10% for China.

The report does say that building a modern retail distribution system that could lead to a significant transformation in India's SME manufacturing and farming segments. "This, coupled with rising infrastructure investments, could provide India with the opportunity to participate in the global export market for low-ticket manufactured goods." Could 'made in India' become the new 'made in China'?

The report throws up some very interesting facts. For e.g., it says that Indians are spending less on primary goods and more on organised sector products — "An average Indian spends about 62% on products other than food, beverages, and tobacco, compared with the average in China of 75%." However, India's share of food and beverages in its overall consumption is still high at 38% vs. 25% for China. Transportation, surprisingly, is also very high at 18% vs. 11% for China. The Chinese spend twice as much on leisure, education, clothing and footwear, health, and hotels as much as we do. Huge divergence in spending levels between China and India (where India is much lower of course) are also visible in shampoos, oral care, carbonated drinks, bottled water, skincare, and cars.
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Column : Who are the friends of the poor?

                
               
                
                         Meghnad Desai        
     Posted: Monday, Aug 16, 2010 at 0110 hrs IST
     Updated: Monday, Aug 16, 2010 at 0110 hrs IST

The publication by NCAER of its new income survey has shown unsurprising results. The top quintile has increased its share of income while the bottom three have seen their share fall. The debate has had a familiar ring. Liberal reform is to blame. Stop it soon and get back to the good old socialist ways.

Of course, incomes have gone up across the board but at a faster rate in the top quintile and not the bottom ones. The reason for this is simple. It shows that liberal economic reform has worked. But it has been applied only to the private sector corporations in services and manufacturing so far. Productivity has gone up in services and manufacturing faster than in agriculture and this is where employment has gone up as well. But even so, 57% of the labour force is still stagnating in agriculture. Liberal economic reform has not touched this sector at all. If anything, this sector still suffers from restrictions on sales of output, from inefficient and wasteful warehousing, and is prevented from obtaining a good price through forward markets. The farmer gets a lousy return because public policy is an obstacle to his getting a maximum return.

Much worse than that are the impediments to labour mobility from agriculture to manufacturing. The rural sector has an oversupply of labour and slow growth of labour productivity. Agricultural policy (such as it is) worries about enhancing productivity per acre rather than productivity per worker. What is needed is removing excess labour from low productivity agriculture to higher productivity manufacturing. This is the surest way of enhancing incomes of the poorest.

This is not rocket science. It requires a policy of massive investment in low-tech manufacturing that can employ unskilled manual labour and give it round the year employment. This, in turn, requires reform of labour laws and of the laws governing land sales. China has done this, Malaysia has done this, and this is indeed the classical Lewis model of development. India, on the other hand, has made cheap labour expensive by enhancing the transaction costs of hiring and firing, so the Indian manufacturing sector has been capital intensive and employs highly skilled labour force.

Alas, the so-called 'friends of the poor' will not countenance reform of labour laws. They will go on denying that this is the problem. Thus, they will offer palliatives like NREG, which gives on average up to...

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FACTBOX - What is the status of India's reform proposals?              

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    Reuters – A worker transports oil in a bullock cart to retail outlets in Mumbai June 9, 2010. REUTERS/Rupak De …
Mon Aug 23, 2:50 am ET
NEW DELHI (Reuters) – With India's main opposition party continuing to object to bills on tax reform and opening up the $150 billion nuclear power market, several reforms proposed by the coalition government may be delayed.
The Congress Party-led coalition government has a slim majority in the lower house of parliament, but not in the upper house. The coalition is also composed of several small and fickle parties who are often suspicious of reforms, making the passage of bills in parliament subject to torturous negotiations.
If not passed, the bills can be taken up in the winter session, around November, but pending state elections from the end of the year could narrow the political window to push any controversial policies.
Here are some of the proposals on the government's wish list and their status:
NUCLEAR LIABILITY BILL
The bill is crucial for the entry of firms like U.S.-based General Electric and Westinghouse Electric, a subsidiary of Japan's Toshiba Corp, who are reluctant to step in without clarity on accident compensation.
The main opposition Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has reneged on a promise to support the bill, saying it makes it difficult to claim compensation from suppliers in case of a nuclear accident.
The bill has the personal backing of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and government officials have said they are hopeful it will be passed in the current session.
Chance of being passed: HIGH - Probably just a matter of some hard behind-the-scenes bargaining.
GOODS AND SERVICES TAX (GST)
India's most ambitious indirect tax reform, the proposed nationwide GST, will give the economy a boost by cutting business costs and enhancing government revenue. Given the bill is a constitutional amendment, it needs support of half of all Indian states and two thirds of parliament.
But the proposal has been opposed by the BJP and some states, who worry about the loss of their fiscal powers, and some analysts say this could delay the implementation of the reform beyond the targeted April 1, 2011.
Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee is in negotiations with political parties and state finance ministers to evolve a consensus, but the political wrangling makes it unlikely the legislation will come in before the next session in the winter.
Chances of bill be passed: UNLIKELY - This bill really needs wide consensus given its a constitutional amendment.
DIRECT TAXES CODE
The code will simplify India's archaic tax laws, helping improve compliance and remove a deterrent for foreign investors to do business in India. The government plans to implement it from April 1, 2011.
The code intends to cut tax rates to bring in more people and companies under the tax net, phase out profit-linked exemptions for companies and replace them with investment-linked incentives.
Despite there being little opposition to the proposal, the government has so far not indicated it will introduce the bill in the current session, making the chances of ratification low.
Chances of bill being passed: LOW - There's a chance, but it may lose out due to shortage of time the government has in parliament.
FOOD SECURITY BILL
The government plans to expand welfare schemes to give poor households greater quantities of cheap food, which in a country of hundreds of millions of poor is seen as boosting Congress's chances in elections.
But the extra spending will also raise questions if India can keep its fiscal deficit in check and stick to a roadmap of cutting it to 4.1 percent of GDP by 2012/13 from the projected 5.5 percent this year.
The government got back to the drawing board after powerful Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi's unhappiness over the original proposal. With the drafting proposal still on, it is unlikely the bill will be presented to parliament in the current session.
Chances of bill being passed: LOW - Despite the backing of the powerful Gandhi, an ongoing debate on its fiscal impact will probably delay it.
(Compiled by C.J. Kuncheria; Editing by Alistair Scrutton and Miral Fahmy)
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1. Economy of India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2. Following strong economic reforms from the socialist inspired economy of a ..... However, about one-third of the industrial labour force is engaged in simple household .... As of 2010, India is the world's fifth largest consumer of oil. ...

3. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India - Cached - Similar

4. [PDF]

5. India Banking 2010

6. File Format: PDF/Adobe Acrobat - Quick View

7. India Banking 2010. Towards a High-performing Sector ... porate governance; labour reforms and human .... Enable labour reforms, focusing on enriching ...

8. www.mckinsey.com/.../india/mckinseyonindia/.../india_banking_2010.pdf - Similar

9. CEO Speak: GM India Prez wants labour reforms - Videos - Business ...

10. CEO Speak: GM India Prez wants labour reforms. General Motors India President and ... 2010 IBNLive.com India. All Rights Reserved. A Web18 Venture. IBNLive ...

11. ibnlive.in.com/.../ceospeak-gm-india-president-wants-labour-reforms.html - Cached

12. Economic Policy Reforms: Going for Growth 2010

13. Reforms have also been more frequent where they were expected to deliver immediate benefits – such as for increased spending on active labour market ...

14. www.oecd.org/.../0,3343,en_2649_34325_44566259_1_1_1_1,00.html - Cached - Similar

15. To compete india needs to reform labour market: Study - Hindustan ...

16. Advertisement. HindustanTimes Mon,23 Aug 2010. North India .... "A radical reform of the country's labour market ecosystem (including labour demand, ...

17. www.hindustantimes.com/...india...reform-labour.../Article1-561266.aspx - Cached

18. Bahrain leads GCC with labour &amp, welfare reforms - Jobs ...

19. Labour reform. Posted by MUKESH BHATIA, mumbai, india on Sunday 10 May 2009 at 16:31 UAE time ... Kuwait plans $17.2bn economic investment in 2010-2011 ...

20. www.arabianbusiness.com/554279-bahrain-leads-gcc-with-labour-aamp-welfare-reforms

21. Labour Reforms – The Need For Protecting Employment Or Employees ...

22. The labour reforms should be undertaken after considering the following factors- ... Indian labour force is not demanding an 'IRON CHAIR' policy of the ... are now closed for this post] Posted by admin - April 5, 2010 at 5:59 am ...

23. staringfrog.com/.../2010/.../labour-reforms-the-need-for-protecting-employment-or-employees-a-perspective-on-changing-economic-sc... - Cached

24. OECD says India needs labour, product reforms | Reuters

25. 3 Dec 2009 ... NEW DELHI Dec 3 (Reuters) - India needs reforms in product and labour markets for high economic growth, the Organisation for Economic ...

26. www.reuters.com/article/idUSBMA00654120091203 - Cached

27. DAWN.COM | International | In slowing India, demand grows for ...

28. Wed, 25 Aug, 2010 | Ramazan 15, 1431. Mobile Friendly Page · News Feed ... In slowing India, demand grows for labour reform. By Rina Chandran ... India's labour laws, rated by the World Bank as among the globe's most rigid, place strict ...

29. www.dawn.com/.../in-slowing-india,-demand-grows-for-labour-reform-179 - Pakistan - Cached

30. The Hindu Business Line : Monday, August 23, 2010

31. India yet to ratify ILO conventions on child labour (May 08, 2010); ILO selects ESAF for study on decent work deficit in India (January 19, 2010) ...

32. www.thehindubusinessline.com/cgi-bin/bl.pl?mainclass... - Cached - Similar

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1. Indian labour law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

2. Further information might be found on the talk page. (May 2009). Indian labour law refers to laws regulating employment in India. There over fifty national ...

3. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_labour_law - Cached - Similar

4. Govt. of India Ministry of Labour

5. Ministry of Labour Government of India. ... Parliament Passes Employees' State Insurance (Amendment Bill) 2009 (06/05/2010) · Government dismisses News report on Job Opporunities ... Search Labour Laws · Acts of Labour Ministry ...

6. labour.nic.in/ - Cached - Similar

7. Labour Laws in India Ppt- Very uselful - ManagementParadise.com ...

8. Institute: institute of management technology. Status: Offline. Posts: 12. Join Date: Jul 2008. Re: Labour Laws in India Ppt- Very uselful - July 8th, 2009 ...

9. www.managementparadise.com › ... › Miscellaneous Projects - Cached - Similar

10. brijj.com

11. broad category of "Industrial Law".Indian labour laws have long been perceived to be inflexible and ... Created On: 23 Mar, 2009. Group type: public ...

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13. Time for another look at labor laws in India? - PSD Blog - The ...

14. 10 Jul 2009 ... India is known for its stringent labor laws—so stringent, in fact, that studies .... Posted by: N.V.Ramana Rao | Nov 25, 2009 8:01:00 AM ...

15. psdblog.worldbank.org/.../2009/.../time-for-another-look-at-labor-laws-in-india.html - Cached - Similar

16. Labour Laws in India

17. 10 posts - 9 authors - Last post: 6 May 2008

18. Dear All I want the latest PPt on Labour Laws In our Country, mainly on ESI, Bonus, PF & Gratuity. Looking for an prompt reply from the members of.

19. www.citehr.com › ... › Labor & Employee Relations - Cached - Similar

20. Labour Law Compliance - Importance & Benefits‎ - 22 Aug 2009

21. List of Holidays 2008 - Minimum No of Holidays - Labour Law‎ - 1 Jun 2008

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24. Minimum Wages India – Current Minimum Wage Rate India

25. Minimum Wages in India. Get Information on Current Minimum Wages and ... With effect from November 2009 the National Floor Level Minimum Wage has been ... Disclaimer : Minimum Wages have been provided by the Labour Departments of ...

26. www.paycheck.in/main/officialminimumwages - Cached - Similar

27. Does labour laws of India need a change?

28. September 8th, 2009 | PostAuthorIcon Author: Ritesh Maity. Does labour laws of India need a change? Modern labour regulation is what we look forward to but ...

29. www.riteshmaity.com/.../2009/.../does-labour-laws-of-india-need-a-change/ - Cached - Similar

30. Labour Laws, Labor Lawsin India | LEGAL INDIA : LAW, LAWYERS ...

31. The history of labour legislation in India is naturally interwoven with the ..... January 31st, 2009 | Tags: Advocate, Attorney of India, Best Labour Law ...

32. www.legalindia.in/labour-law-in-india - Cached - Similar

33. IT companies free of labour laws for 2 years - India Business ...

34. The Times of India. The Times of India Indiatimes Web (by Google) ... companies free of labour laws for 2 years. Anil Kumar M, TNN, Sep 1, 2009, 03.49am IST ...

35. timesofindia.indiatimes.com/.../india...labour-laws.../4957075.cms - Cached

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